🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K on Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, sparking debate about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been apprehended. One account, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and surged in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment right before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a trade based on inside information," stated an industry expert. A handful of other traders also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. Proposed legislation put forward on recently aims to prohibit government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting industry. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."